What Would Sam Neil Say?
I'm not a Tom Clancy fan. As a Mick, I think he goes overboard in making his hero Hibernian, but he also did too much in making the man a tool of the Brits in his anti IRA screed. Still in the movie, The Hunt for Red October, There is a small scene where Sam Neill's character is talking with Sean Connery's. Neill talks about how he is going to travel from state to state in his recreational vehicle. At one point he says, "No papers?" and Connery affirms, "No Papers." I loved that.
That was of course in the old Evil Empire days. Nowadays, we are scared of everything. I saw a post at Squirmelicious detailing the decline in our privacy and the increase in our surveillance.
Kids, we're all going to die. Hate to break it to you. Get out from under the bed and face the day. After all, when you sneak out of the house, you have a greater chance of dying for your country going to the 7-eleven and getting in a car crash than being attacked by Achmed. Got a swimming pool? An undertaker wife told mine that her husband had a lot of business from his affluent clientele's drowning children. Never said international terrorism got one.
Oh, speaking about "The Troubles," they said instituting surveillance cameras in the Six Counties was just to watch "terrorists." Gee, guess what's all over Britland now. I guess your Lumpen Limeys are all terrorists, or so HMG thinks.
I don't think as Squirmelicious does that Obama is the answer as he's flipped the flop on the Mid East. I think the people are the problem. If we did not see a bogeyman at every turn, the powers that be would not run with it.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Friday, June 27, 2008
Not The Meaning of Life, but Not Without Meaning
Linked from the resurrected Ilkka is a blog post about Tim Russert. Of course, by now it should be Tim Russert who? The import of the article is that Tim was fat, but he had no trouble getting on the case of deceased smokers. People talking about him are tiptoeing around his weight. Rest his soul, but he was hefty and did nothing about it and felt very good about being a non smoker.
When I was a kid, pre civil rights, there was a story told in Black American dialect that I thought contained a lot of wisdom. I suppose it might offend someone, but it is apropos and I'll recount it.
Preacher engages a ferryman to take him across a river. As ferryman is rowing the preacher asks him, "Son, do you smoke?" Ferryman answers, "Yes Rev, I does." "Son, one fourth of your life is over."
Little while later, preacher asks, "Son do you drink?" Ferryman, "Yes, Rev." "Son two fourth of your life is over."
Later, "Son, do you chase women?" "Yes." "Son, three fourths of your life is over."
The ferryman is now very nervous. So nervous and shakey, he forgets his skill on the river and hits a rock. The boat crashes and the ferryman swims to shore.
From shore he shouts to the preacher, "Hey Rev does you swim?" The preacher answers, "No son, I do not." The ferryman shouts, "Well Rev, four fourths of your life is over."
When I was a kid, pre civil rights, there was a story told in Black American dialect that I thought contained a lot of wisdom. I suppose it might offend someone, but it is apropos and I'll recount it.
Preacher engages a ferryman to take him across a river. As ferryman is rowing the preacher asks him, "Son, do you smoke?" Ferryman answers, "Yes Rev, I does." "Son, one fourth of your life is over."
Little while later, preacher asks, "Son do you drink?" Ferryman, "Yes, Rev." "Son two fourth of your life is over."
Later, "Son, do you chase women?" "Yes." "Son, three fourths of your life is over."
The ferryman is now very nervous. So nervous and shakey, he forgets his skill on the river and hits a rock. The boat crashes and the ferryman swims to shore.
From shore he shouts to the preacher, "Hey Rev does you swim?" The preacher answers, "No son, I do not." The ferryman shouts, "Well Rev, four fourths of your life is over."
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Death Conditioning
The Black Sea left the following comment on my last post.
On a more personal level, I can attest to the power of this phenomenon. Three years ago, a colleague whom I barely knew, and considered fairly odd, died in his mid-50s of leukemia. Although his death naturally received no media hype, I was surprised at how much it saddened me. I'd only ever spoken to the guy a couple of times, but still, in his mid 50s . . . (I was in my 40s, and at this point ten years passes rather quickly, so perhaps I was really premeptively lamenting my own demise).
Yep, that's us.
Contrast that with my old man. In Huxley's Brave New World there is death conditioning where kids are socialized to not worry about death. I think that happened in the world pre WWII society. My dad's brother was killed by a trolley at seven years of age. There was a lot of that in inner city neighborhoods in those days. Of the six kids my grandmother gave birth to, I only knew three.
That was a less safety conscious world. Also, it was pre antibiotic. Calvin Coolidge's son, who would have had the best treatment available died of a simple infection. Penicillin would have cured it with ease.
One of my dad's favorite entertainments was going to wakes. I have never seen the man more at ease than when conversing with friends a few feet away from a stiff.* Not for nothing do they call the obituaries the Irish Sports Pages where I come from.
His reaction to hearing about the situation Black Sea mentions. "Hey, yah hear about Mikey. Leukemia. Only 55. Got the paper? Gotta see when the wake is." He would have a hard time not appearing exhuberant.
Himself went at 93. A respectable wake, but nothing like the old days. He had been to the wake of just about everyone he knew. Other than his best friend from childhood, there was no one left.
Moi, I almost never get the paper and I never check the obituaries, if only for fear I might be in there.
*I never saw anyone partake of alcohol. Just had to get the stereotype thing out of the way.
On a more personal level, I can attest to the power of this phenomenon. Three years ago, a colleague whom I barely knew, and considered fairly odd, died in his mid-50s of leukemia. Although his death naturally received no media hype, I was surprised at how much it saddened me. I'd only ever spoken to the guy a couple of times, but still, in his mid 50s . . . (I was in my 40s, and at this point ten years passes rather quickly, so perhaps I was really premeptively lamenting my own demise).
Yep, that's us.
Contrast that with my old man. In Huxley's Brave New World there is death conditioning where kids are socialized to not worry about death. I think that happened in the world pre WWII society. My dad's brother was killed by a trolley at seven years of age. There was a lot of that in inner city neighborhoods in those days. Of the six kids my grandmother gave birth to, I only knew three.
That was a less safety conscious world. Also, it was pre antibiotic. Calvin Coolidge's son, who would have had the best treatment available died of a simple infection. Penicillin would have cured it with ease.
One of my dad's favorite entertainments was going to wakes. I have never seen the man more at ease than when conversing with friends a few feet away from a stiff.* Not for nothing do they call the obituaries the Irish Sports Pages where I come from.
His reaction to hearing about the situation Black Sea mentions. "Hey, yah hear about Mikey. Leukemia. Only 55. Got the paper? Gotta see when the wake is." He would have a hard time not appearing exhuberant.
Himself went at 93. A respectable wake, but nothing like the old days. He had been to the wake of just about everyone he knew. Other than his best friend from childhood, there was no one left.
Moi, I almost never get the paper and I never check the obituaries, if only for fear I might be in there.
*I never saw anyone partake of alcohol. Just had to get the stereotype thing out of the way.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Another Blogger Notices Tim Is Dead
Tim Russert's passing affected me personally. No, I did not connect with him because he represented me on the TV in some way. It affected me because we are or were the same age. Mr. Russert was on a few different drugs for maladies that I associate with older people. Could he have saved his life by leaving his job and taking up like moi the life of the self-employed, under-employed swamp yankee? Don't know. I could keel over tomorrow, so today is lucky.
My lifestyle is the anti-Russert. I do self-medicate. A couple of cups of coffee in the morning. A glass (well, closer to two) of red wine with dinner. I follow a strict dietary regimen of using bacon fat as a cooking medium for eggs (lots of 'em). Bacon fat is the olive oil of the north and those of us melanin challenged people from colder climes ignore its healing properties at our peril.
As to Tim himself. Like Princess Di, I had no connection with him other than hearing his voice simulcast over the radio on Sunday evenings once or twice. That people say nice things about him is okay, but the deification is a bit over the top. The biggest reason he had his job, and you would realize this if you only heard him on radio, is his pleasant voice. He could savage Ron Paul and still seem a nice guy. TV is a "soft medium," he was kind of a drug. That nice guy persona helped him even if he used it in the service of a bitter partisanship.
On a newscast they played at his memorial some bit of rock noise that had been on his ipod. My first thought was why did they embarrass the man by playing his guilty pleasure of low music. Ah, but this is the Republic of Bad Taste and he was his country.
I quote the best comment about him and his class,
...professionally, he was not a "great journalist," because a great journalist searches for the truth and asks fundamental questions about the status-quo. He was successful at rebuilding Meet the Press into the highest-rated Sunday morning news program. He was successful at becoming a celebrity and making a lot of money. In short, he was a successful media animal. But his very tenure at an establishment mouthpiece like Meet the Press is de facto evidence of his real professional legacy, of which this article’s transcript, and the gushing tributes this week from establishment politicians and journalists, are further proof: Tim Russert was a shill for the state and the power elite who control it.*
Oh well, we are only supposed to get 15 minutes. He had a half hour. After the canonization is done, he will be forgotten.
*Johnny Kramer at LRC
**Justin Raimondo probably has the best titled article, Enough Already!
My lifestyle is the anti-Russert. I do self-medicate. A couple of cups of coffee in the morning. A glass (well, closer to two) of red wine with dinner. I follow a strict dietary regimen of using bacon fat as a cooking medium for eggs (lots of 'em). Bacon fat is the olive oil of the north and those of us melanin challenged people from colder climes ignore its healing properties at our peril.
As to Tim himself. Like Princess Di, I had no connection with him other than hearing his voice simulcast over the radio on Sunday evenings once or twice. That people say nice things about him is okay, but the deification is a bit over the top. The biggest reason he had his job, and you would realize this if you only heard him on radio, is his pleasant voice. He could savage Ron Paul and still seem a nice guy. TV is a "soft medium," he was kind of a drug. That nice guy persona helped him even if he used it in the service of a bitter partisanship.
On a newscast they played at his memorial some bit of rock noise that had been on his ipod. My first thought was why did they embarrass the man by playing his guilty pleasure of low music. Ah, but this is the Republic of Bad Taste and he was his country.
I quote the best comment about him and his class,
...professionally, he was not a "great journalist," because a great journalist searches for the truth and asks fundamental questions about the status-quo. He was successful at rebuilding Meet the Press into the highest-rated Sunday morning news program. He was successful at becoming a celebrity and making a lot of money. In short, he was a successful media animal. But his very tenure at an establishment mouthpiece like Meet the Press is de facto evidence of his real professional legacy, of which this article’s transcript, and the gushing tributes this week from establishment politicians and journalists, are further proof: Tim Russert was a shill for the state and the power elite who control it.*
Oh well, we are only supposed to get 15 minutes. He had a half hour. After the canonization is done, he will be forgotten.
*Johnny Kramer at LRC
**Justin Raimondo probably has the best titled article, Enough Already!
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Prospects Dim
Third quarter earnings for Clinton Inc. are expected to nosedive. The company, founded in 2001 to take advantage of the earnings prospects of William J. Clinton who was leaving a chief executive position due to the legal limitation of length of service. He was continuing his association with Hilary Clinton. It had been a tumultuous period of service for both.
Clinton Inc. had positioned itself as a major player in the influence peddling sector and had steady growth since operations began. Hilary Clinton, however, has been rejected as the next holder of her husband's old ceo position. This is expected to cause growth to, in the words of Monty Python, "not so much fly, as plummet."
The rumors that Ms. Clinton will now separate from Clinton Inc. to found Rodham Partners as a new company are probably untrue as interest appears nil. A breaking apart of the entity, due to the different outlooks, if not incompatabilty of the two senior staff is not ruled out.
Clinton Inc. had positioned itself as a major player in the influence peddling sector and had steady growth since operations began. Hilary Clinton, however, has been rejected as the next holder of her husband's old ceo position. This is expected to cause growth to, in the words of Monty Python, "not so much fly, as plummet."
The rumors that Ms. Clinton will now separate from Clinton Inc. to found Rodham Partners as a new company are probably untrue as interest appears nil. A breaking apart of the entity, due to the different outlooks, if not incompatabilty of the two senior staff is not ruled out.
Saturday, June 07, 2008
Okay, is it time to panic yet?
A few days ago, oil drops a fiver, and I'm thinking an overbought market. Yesterday, up near $11 on war rumors. It's like getting whiplash watching a tennis match, except the trend is one way.
So, if an attack happens, and the Strait of Hormuz gets blocked, we shall see if the center can hold. We'll see if we can even have a center.
A few years ago, through a friend, I sort of had a writing audition for a small Western Massachusetts newspaper. I was to review a book on the then new subject of peak oil. I flunked the assignment as the editor thought I was trying to bring a tad too much humor to the task.
Now, peak oil is out there as a subject, but like global warming, how much can a non expert know. The book, Out of Gas by David Goodstein is a few years old now, but if you are a non science geek, it is a good read. Mr. Goodstein explains it so we non nerds can comprehend it.
I liked his book, but I can't say I've learned enough to make a judgment. My doubts about peak oil are not related to science, I still don't know enough to be confident one way or the other. It's a human thing. Everybody is jumping on the peak oil band wagon. Usually, that means the crowd has joined at the wrong time in my life's experience.
Out of Gas, by David Goodstein
Repent, the end is nigh. No, this time we really mean it. Sort of. You see, the world is running out of the stuff that makes it spin. Ah, but it started running out of that stuff on the day of the first gusher in 1859. Now, however, we really do have a gasoline crisis.
According to David Goodstein, author of Out of Gas, we have used up or are about to have used up half of all the petroleum that ever will be available on this planet. In a world where demand for black gold only increases, a declining supply being fought over by nations, not to mention individuals, reminds one of the Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times.” Life may get interesting indeed.
Yeah, but some might say, we had those long gas lines in the seventies and a few years later, gasoline prices were lower, adjusted for inflation than ever. Still. I occasionally like to get my paranoa juices flowing. After all, I haven’t had so much fun since before the y2k scare fizzled. Who is this Dave Goodstein, another crank? Would that he were. Dr. David L. Goodstein, Ph.D is a physics prof at Caltech, which is not a school advertised on matchbook covers. His biography is a lengthy list of accomplishments. He is the real thing who, lucky for me, has the ability to communicate to primitives with an entertaining style of writing.
Doctor Dave, lays out the problem well. He recaps the now well discussed Hubberts Peak. For those who have not heard about it, geophysicist M King Hubbert predicted in 1960 that oil production in the lower 48 would peak around 1970. He was right. It has been downhill ever since. Recently, other geologists have been using Hubbert’s methods. Brace yourself. Peak is coming within this decade. It may even have already occurred.
What does this mean? It means more people competing for less oil, forever. The crisis does not begin when the last drop is pumped, but when the half way point is reached. And, what happens when such a competition begins. One thing is, the price starts to rise. Now the author avers that a steep inflation will occur as we all compete for all the various petrochemical products. I tend to agree with him, but for a different reason. Inflation does not occur when the price of one commodity, or even a set of commodities become scarce and prices rise, for in a system where the central bank could actually control itself, the prices of other commodities must decline. If past is prologue, don’t expect the fed to exercise restraint.
So, how do we replace the missing energy? Do we go to a methane economy, making up the shortfall with natural gas products? Will we actually be better off when spurred by higher energy prices, less polluting forms of enegy come into production? Goodstein looks at a lot of alternatives.
About that methane economy. The use of natural gas as an alternative for Texas Tea could be done, with some effort. The problem is that peak natural gas will come just a couple of decades after peak oil.
Okay, scratch that. What else? Well the author notes there is a lot of elemental carbon buried beneath our planet’s surface. The stuff is coal. You can even liquefy it for driving in a process that is energy intensive and expensive. Oh, there are a few drawbacks. It is very dirty and gives off a lot of waste such that if we go over to a coal economy and you eat a lot of tuna, you may be able to take your own temperature.
The good doctor also looks at nuclear. He actually likes it. As mentioned above, I am a primitive and that may explain a fear of nuclear power. I would not wish to live next to an atomic plant, nor would I wish that fate for someone else. Reality, however, causes me to realize that when the bulbs start to flicker, my countrymen and women will look at things in a different light, so to speak. Of course, I would not like to live next to a coal fired plant either. It is a dilemma we may be forced to choose, assuming we are even asked. The greenhouse gas spewing chimneys or a potential mountain of spent fuel.
There is even a peak uranium problem as if we go full bore on nuclear we have only a twenty five year supply tops. That little problem can be circumvented by building breeder reactors to change a form of uranium into plutonium and providing a lot of fuel and fissile material for electricity and bombs. Anyway, whatever help nuclear provides, it won’t work in you car.
There is a clean form of atomic power. It’s called fusion. The author discusses it and its arrival is devoutly to be wished. His comment on it and another hope, shale oil, is all we need mention, “It has been said of both nuclear fusion and shale oil that they are the energy of the future, and always will be.”
As to hydropower, been there, done that, at least as much as we can on this planet. Wind? It’s great stuff, and it has a place. Unfortunately, it does not have enough places. Photovoltaics gets a “needs improvement” on the prof’s report card. He has a lot of suggestions on space based solar and improving what already exists. All of them good ideas, but of limited utility if peak is occurring now.
Obviously, the poor man spends way to much time in the classroom and needs to get out more. Just doing a little sociology led me to an energy solution that will be cheaper than any Manhattan Project . You see, I watched the movie Super Size Me wherein Morgan Spurlock eats only at McDonalds and almost becomes poster child for save the whales. Well, Professor Chazz Weaver, an economist went on the McDiet for a month, but exercised an hour a day and lost weight. Morgan’s movie spent a good deal of time on the epidemic of obesity. He had statistics and a lot of visual evidence to prove there is a big (pun intended) problem in our homeland. actually, I kind of relished (I can’t believe I did that) his scenes of people whom the Good Lord should have never given tee shirts and shorts. My love handles don’t feel so bad.
Still, there is an energy crisis to solve, Anybody with a McDonald’s jones that shows within certain guidelines should be required to exercise on a stationary bicycle attached to a generator that is plugged into the electrical grid. The bike would measure the amount of effort necessary to use up enough calories to be of benefit to the rider. Business loves to tout the win/win solution to a problem. Heck here we have a win/win/win/win/win. MickeyD’s wins because its customers are now svelte. The environment wins because other than some panting much less CO2 is belched into the air to produce electricity. The health care system wins as there will be fewer ambulances rushing to emergency rooms. Big Mac lovers win as they will feel and be (sort of) healthier. I’ll win as I’ll be on my way to Stockholm to pick up my Nobel. Or maybe this paragraph explains why Doc Goodstein teaches Physics and I’m just hacking around here in hillbilly Massachusetts.
The question does remain, is David Goodstein right or wrong. If he is right, and we don’t have adequate fixes in place, our world, as we know it will come crashing down on us. His worst case is that 95% of us are superfluous. Volunteers? His best case is we go to methane as a bridge while working on newer technologies.
One bit of anecdotal evidence that we are responding to peak oil here in Nova Anglia is the increased sales of outdoor wood stoves. Recently, friends of mine have mentioned their purchases and have related it to getting out from under fuel bills. Now this may not be a response to declining energy supplies. It could be a reaction to the possibility that Mr. Greenspan might no longer be able to work his magic in restraining inflation. No matter. If either becomes a crisis our Saudi Arabia of wood here in the Northeast will be gone in short order. A logger friend of mine related a couplet that described Massachusetts in the 19th Century,
From Pittsfield to the sea
Nary a tree you could see.
So it could be again.
I have been reading about the peak oil crisis for awhile now. So far, most of the press has gone to people who are believers. It has taken a small effort, but I have found some who disagree. The best of the lot appears to be Michael Lynch, President, Strategic Energy and Economic Research, Inc., and Research Affiliate, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Lynch is cited in the footnotes of Dr. Goodstein’s book. Mr. Lynch attacks the Hubbert Model as being inadequate and has fun pointing out that the peak crowd have been crying wolf for a while now. Most famously, he tells about Colin Campbell, one of the movement Gurus, prediciting imminent peak since 1989. From what I have read, I tend to agree more with Mr. Lynch. That is, up to point. The demand pressure is great what with the new Chinese and Indian middle classes wanting to join the ranks of car owners, but if the oil industry can react to demand by exploration and research, they may push the day of reckoning off for a few decades. If their efforts gradually reach a point of diminishing returns, that other technologies (some we may not be all that pleased with) will almost seamlessly take up the slack.
I would guess, if we are going to have a real life changing twenty-first century energy crisis, it will have a big political aspect to it. An invasion of Iran could do that trick.
For me, the most enjoyable aspect of this book was the review of junior high school science. Actually, it was science put in terms simple enough that an eighth grader could understand. Thanks Doc for coming down to my level. I know you had to travel.
Some biographical info below:
Dr. David L. Goodstein, Ph.D., is Vice Provost and Professor of Physics and Applied Physics at Caltech, where he has been on the faculty for more than 35 years. In 1995, he was named the Frank J. Gilloon Distinguished Teaching and Service Professor. In 1999, Dr. Goodstein was awarded the Oersted Medal of the American Association of Physics Teachers, and in 2000, the John P. McGovern Medal of the Sigma Xi Society. He has served on and chaired numerous scientific and academic panels, including the National Advisory Committee to the Mathematical and Physical Sciences Directorate of the National Science Foundation. He is a founding member of the Board of Directors of the California Council on Science and Technology. His books include States of Matter (Prentice Hall, 1975, Dover, 1985) and Feynman’s Lost Lecture (Norton, 1996), written with his wife, Dr. Judith Goodstein. In the 1980’s he was Director and host of The Mechanical Universe, an educational television series that has been used by millions of students all over the world.
In recent times, while continuing to teach and conduct research in experimental Condensed Matter Physics, Dr. Goodstein has turned his attention to issues related to science and society. In articles, speeches and colloquia he has addressed conduct and misconduct in science, the end of exponential growth of the scientific enterprise, and issues related to fossil fuel and the climate of Planet Earth.
Dr. Goodstein has been Caltech’s Vice Provost since 1988.
So, if an attack happens, and the Strait of Hormuz gets blocked, we shall see if the center can hold. We'll see if we can even have a center.
A few years ago, through a friend, I sort of had a writing audition for a small Western Massachusetts newspaper. I was to review a book on the then new subject of peak oil. I flunked the assignment as the editor thought I was trying to bring a tad too much humor to the task.
Now, peak oil is out there as a subject, but like global warming, how much can a non expert know. The book, Out of Gas by David Goodstein is a few years old now, but if you are a non science geek, it is a good read. Mr. Goodstein explains it so we non nerds can comprehend it.
I liked his book, but I can't say I've learned enough to make a judgment. My doubts about peak oil are not related to science, I still don't know enough to be confident one way or the other. It's a human thing. Everybody is jumping on the peak oil band wagon. Usually, that means the crowd has joined at the wrong time in my life's experience.
Out of Gas, by David Goodstein
Repent, the end is nigh. No, this time we really mean it. Sort of. You see, the world is running out of the stuff that makes it spin. Ah, but it started running out of that stuff on the day of the first gusher in 1859. Now, however, we really do have a gasoline crisis.
According to David Goodstein, author of Out of Gas, we have used up or are about to have used up half of all the petroleum that ever will be available on this planet. In a world where demand for black gold only increases, a declining supply being fought over by nations, not to mention individuals, reminds one of the Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times.” Life may get interesting indeed.
Yeah, but some might say, we had those long gas lines in the seventies and a few years later, gasoline prices were lower, adjusted for inflation than ever. Still. I occasionally like to get my paranoa juices flowing. After all, I haven’t had so much fun since before the y2k scare fizzled. Who is this Dave Goodstein, another crank? Would that he were. Dr. David L. Goodstein, Ph.D is a physics prof at Caltech, which is not a school advertised on matchbook covers. His biography is a lengthy list of accomplishments. He is the real thing who, lucky for me, has the ability to communicate to primitives with an entertaining style of writing.
Doctor Dave, lays out the problem well. He recaps the now well discussed Hubberts Peak. For those who have not heard about it, geophysicist M King Hubbert predicted in 1960 that oil production in the lower 48 would peak around 1970. He was right. It has been downhill ever since. Recently, other geologists have been using Hubbert’s methods. Brace yourself. Peak is coming within this decade. It may even have already occurred.
What does this mean? It means more people competing for less oil, forever. The crisis does not begin when the last drop is pumped, but when the half way point is reached. And, what happens when such a competition begins. One thing is, the price starts to rise. Now the author avers that a steep inflation will occur as we all compete for all the various petrochemical products. I tend to agree with him, but for a different reason. Inflation does not occur when the price of one commodity, or even a set of commodities become scarce and prices rise, for in a system where the central bank could actually control itself, the prices of other commodities must decline. If past is prologue, don’t expect the fed to exercise restraint.
So, how do we replace the missing energy? Do we go to a methane economy, making up the shortfall with natural gas products? Will we actually be better off when spurred by higher energy prices, less polluting forms of enegy come into production? Goodstein looks at a lot of alternatives.
About that methane economy. The use of natural gas as an alternative for Texas Tea could be done, with some effort. The problem is that peak natural gas will come just a couple of decades after peak oil.
Okay, scratch that. What else? Well the author notes there is a lot of elemental carbon buried beneath our planet’s surface. The stuff is coal. You can even liquefy it for driving in a process that is energy intensive and expensive. Oh, there are a few drawbacks. It is very dirty and gives off a lot of waste such that if we go over to a coal economy and you eat a lot of tuna, you may be able to take your own temperature.
The good doctor also looks at nuclear. He actually likes it. As mentioned above, I am a primitive and that may explain a fear of nuclear power. I would not wish to live next to an atomic plant, nor would I wish that fate for someone else. Reality, however, causes me to realize that when the bulbs start to flicker, my countrymen and women will look at things in a different light, so to speak. Of course, I would not like to live next to a coal fired plant either. It is a dilemma we may be forced to choose, assuming we are even asked. The greenhouse gas spewing chimneys or a potential mountain of spent fuel.
There is even a peak uranium problem as if we go full bore on nuclear we have only a twenty five year supply tops. That little problem can be circumvented by building breeder reactors to change a form of uranium into plutonium and providing a lot of fuel and fissile material for electricity and bombs. Anyway, whatever help nuclear provides, it won’t work in you car.
There is a clean form of atomic power. It’s called fusion. The author discusses it and its arrival is devoutly to be wished. His comment on it and another hope, shale oil, is all we need mention, “It has been said of both nuclear fusion and shale oil that they are the energy of the future, and always will be.”
As to hydropower, been there, done that, at least as much as we can on this planet. Wind? It’s great stuff, and it has a place. Unfortunately, it does not have enough places. Photovoltaics gets a “needs improvement” on the prof’s report card. He has a lot of suggestions on space based solar and improving what already exists. All of them good ideas, but of limited utility if peak is occurring now.
Obviously, the poor man spends way to much time in the classroom and needs to get out more. Just doing a little sociology led me to an energy solution that will be cheaper than any Manhattan Project . You see, I watched the movie Super Size Me wherein Morgan Spurlock eats only at McDonalds and almost becomes poster child for save the whales. Well, Professor Chazz Weaver, an economist went on the McDiet for a month, but exercised an hour a day and lost weight. Morgan’s movie spent a good deal of time on the epidemic of obesity. He had statistics and a lot of visual evidence to prove there is a big (pun intended) problem in our homeland. actually, I kind of relished (I can’t believe I did that) his scenes of people whom the Good Lord should have never given tee shirts and shorts. My love handles don’t feel so bad.
Still, there is an energy crisis to solve, Anybody with a McDonald’s jones that shows within certain guidelines should be required to exercise on a stationary bicycle attached to a generator that is plugged into the electrical grid. The bike would measure the amount of effort necessary to use up enough calories to be of benefit to the rider. Business loves to tout the win/win solution to a problem. Heck here we have a win/win/win/win/win. MickeyD’s wins because its customers are now svelte. The environment wins because other than some panting much less CO2 is belched into the air to produce electricity. The health care system wins as there will be fewer ambulances rushing to emergency rooms. Big Mac lovers win as they will feel and be (sort of) healthier. I’ll win as I’ll be on my way to Stockholm to pick up my Nobel. Or maybe this paragraph explains why Doc Goodstein teaches Physics and I’m just hacking around here in hillbilly Massachusetts.
The question does remain, is David Goodstein right or wrong. If he is right, and we don’t have adequate fixes in place, our world, as we know it will come crashing down on us. His worst case is that 95% of us are superfluous. Volunteers? His best case is we go to methane as a bridge while working on newer technologies.
One bit of anecdotal evidence that we are responding to peak oil here in Nova Anglia is the increased sales of outdoor wood stoves. Recently, friends of mine have mentioned their purchases and have related it to getting out from under fuel bills. Now this may not be a response to declining energy supplies. It could be a reaction to the possibility that Mr. Greenspan might no longer be able to work his magic in restraining inflation. No matter. If either becomes a crisis our Saudi Arabia of wood here in the Northeast will be gone in short order. A logger friend of mine related a couplet that described Massachusetts in the 19th Century,
From Pittsfield to the sea
Nary a tree you could see.
So it could be again.
I have been reading about the peak oil crisis for awhile now. So far, most of the press has gone to people who are believers. It has taken a small effort, but I have found some who disagree. The best of the lot appears to be Michael Lynch, President, Strategic Energy and Economic Research, Inc., and Research Affiliate, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Lynch is cited in the footnotes of Dr. Goodstein’s book. Mr. Lynch attacks the Hubbert Model as being inadequate and has fun pointing out that the peak crowd have been crying wolf for a while now. Most famously, he tells about Colin Campbell, one of the movement Gurus, prediciting imminent peak since 1989. From what I have read, I tend to agree more with Mr. Lynch. That is, up to point. The demand pressure is great what with the new Chinese and Indian middle classes wanting to join the ranks of car owners, but if the oil industry can react to demand by exploration and research, they may push the day of reckoning off for a few decades. If their efforts gradually reach a point of diminishing returns, that other technologies (some we may not be all that pleased with) will almost seamlessly take up the slack.
I would guess, if we are going to have a real life changing twenty-first century energy crisis, it will have a big political aspect to it. An invasion of Iran could do that trick.
For me, the most enjoyable aspect of this book was the review of junior high school science. Actually, it was science put in terms simple enough that an eighth grader could understand. Thanks Doc for coming down to my level. I know you had to travel.
Some biographical info below:
Dr. David L. Goodstein, Ph.D., is Vice Provost and Professor of Physics and Applied Physics at Caltech, where he has been on the faculty for more than 35 years. In 1995, he was named the Frank J. Gilloon Distinguished Teaching and Service Professor. In 1999, Dr. Goodstein was awarded the Oersted Medal of the American Association of Physics Teachers, and in 2000, the John P. McGovern Medal of the Sigma Xi Society. He has served on and chaired numerous scientific and academic panels, including the National Advisory Committee to the Mathematical and Physical Sciences Directorate of the National Science Foundation. He is a founding member of the Board of Directors of the California Council on Science and Technology. His books include States of Matter (Prentice Hall, 1975, Dover, 1985) and Feynman’s Lost Lecture (Norton, 1996), written with his wife, Dr. Judith Goodstein. In the 1980’s he was Director and host of The Mechanical Universe, an educational television series that has been used by millions of students all over the world.
In recent times, while continuing to teach and conduct research in experimental Condensed Matter Physics, Dr. Goodstein has turned his attention to issues related to science and society. In articles, speeches and colloquia he has addressed conduct and misconduct in science, the end of exponential growth of the scientific enterprise, and issues related to fossil fuel and the climate of Planet Earth.
Dr. Goodstein has been Caltech’s Vice Provost since 1988.
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